News - Fitzgerald Articles

Plus, strong iron ore prices mean Fenix EBITDA set to exceed its market cap and Orion’s rising share price boosts its project funding prospects.

Geoscientists that double as CEOs rarely if ever get to take a world-class discovery they have made through to the off-take, financing, construction and production phase. The reality is that 99% of them don’t want too either. It requires a different “skill set,” as they say. And besides, they would rather be out kicking rocks looking for their next career-defining discovery. So it was this week with Liontown’s long-serving CEO David Richards.

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And as the uranium sector begins to glow amid bullish price forecasts, Boss moves to finance production restart at South Australian project

Copper has been a star performer since mid-2020 in response to COVID production hits in Latin America, global stimulus, and the global decarbonisation push gathering momentum. The red metal averaged all of $US2.50/lb in the first (calendar) six months of 2020 and is now sitting pretty at $US3.54/lb. Much of the gain can be attributed to COVID-related supply concerns and COVID-related stimulus. Decarbonisation is the longer-term and potentially more explosive thematic, with copper supply shortages more or less baked in come 2025.

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Plus, shares in battery graphite producer Syrah hitch an EV ride while Mincor looks set to follow suit in the name of nickel

Buying into one of the best metals discoveries in recent times – Chalice’s Julimar near Perth – has just got a lot cheaper, even though its story has just got a lot better, such are the joys of investing in the resources space during periods of metal price volatility. Chalice (CHN) was off 13% in Thursday’s market to $4.04. Nothing particularly wrong with that given $4.04 compares with a pre-Julimar discovery 52-week low of 14.5c. But it is down from a recent high of $4.92.

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Plus, Liontown’s results fuel hopes it may be Chalice Mark II and Bellevue’s imminent feasibility study set to reveal ‘a moving feast to the upside’

Rex Mineral’s chief executive Richard Laufmann reckons we’re in a new commodities super cycle, with copper in particular to benefit. He is a big fella whose collection of motorcycles includes a Harley-Davidson, so there will be no disagreement here with his call. Besides, the price performance of copper since mid-2020 has been nothing short of spectacular. The red metal averaged $US2.66/lb in the first six months of last year but has since charged 38% higher to $US3.66/lb, or about 60% above its March 2020 lows.

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Argonaut’s latest annual compilation features diverse mix of commodities and locations. In the mix is Bardoc Gold, which a fellow broker says is yet to get the love it deserves from investors.

If only there was a tried-and-true method of determining when a project gives its junior resources company owner the right stuff to outperform in the next 12 months. Well, a neat bit of annual research by Argonaut gets as close to a tried-and-true method as could be hoped for by investors. It’s called “Argonaut’s Best Undeveloped Projects (BUPs),” with the resources corporate adviser/stockbroking firm having just completed its 2020 review.

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Gold Road and Breaker among those seen as having potential to play catch-up. And TNG is also chasing a re-rating as its FID looms.

The gold stocks aren’t exactly ending 2020 in style. The retreat in the gold price from a peak of $US2,063/oz in August and the severe choppiness in the price in the last couple of weeks has made sure of that. But the reality is that the US-dollar gold price remains some 20% higher than its starting point for the (calendar) year, leaving Aussie gold margins as strong as the industry could hope for at more than $A1,200 an oz. The cash is rolling in.

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The Australian-dollar price is now higher than in its heyday of 2011, delivering big wins for investors in highly-leveraged juniors such as Fenix and Strike. And Liontown’s lithium seen as potential prey for the bigger mining houses.

Rio Tinto back through $110, BHP back through $41 and Fortescue into record territory of more than $20. Anyone would think Christmas has arrived early for the big iron ore producers. And it has, courtesy of  the spike in the iron ore price to a spectacular $US136.30/t (CRF North China) on the latest production woes for Brazil’s Vale at a time of seemingly insatiable demand from China. Vale is supposed to be pumping out 400Mtpa, but the oversight fallout from two tailings dam disasters and the ravages of COVID-19 have put paid to that.

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Surging demand for EVs is expected to see rare earths live up to their name. This bullish outlook is fuelling interest in leveraged juniors such as RareX. And Kingston lives up to this column’s forecast of a share price re-rating.

The surge in the value of Elon Musk’s Tesla to $US544 billion ahead of the stock’s entry into the blue-chip S&P 500 stock index next month is mind blowing stuff. Is Tesla really worth almost three times the value of the dual-listed BHP? It is spearheading the electric vehicle and storage of renewable energy revolution, so maybe it is. But that’s one for others to debate.

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